Military Embedded Systems

IARPA conference for Hybrid Forecasting Competition announced


December 22, 2015

John McHale

Editorial Director

Military Embedded Systems

WASHINGTON. Officials at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced the organization will be hosting a Proposers’ Day Conference for the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) program on February 3, 2016, as part of the build up to the release of a new solicitation supporting the program.

The conference will be held from 9 am to 4 pm in the Washington. It will provide introductory information on HFC and the research problems that the program is looking to address, to respond to questions from potential proposers, and to provide a forum for potential proposers to present their capabilities for teaming opportunities, according to the IARPA website.

This announcement serves as a pre-solicitation notice and is issued solely for information and planning purposes, according to IARPA, and as such conference does not constitute a formal solicitation for proposals or proposal abstracts. Conference attendance is voluntary and is not required to propose to future solicitations (if any) associated with this Program. Reimbursement for any costs incurred to participate in this Proposers’ Day will not be made by IARPA.

HFC looks to enhance forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. It will develop and test methods to optimize human/machine collaboration for the creation of maximally accurate geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts, according to an IARPA release. Intelligence analysts, along with professionals in other operational forecasting disciplines, currently struggle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined/weighted with machine model-based forecasts in order to maximize the accuracy of the resultant probability forecasts. The methods HFC will create should help the human analyst navigate this problem.

Methods developed in the program may include but are not limited to"

(1) protocols that train human forecasters to optimally combine/weight human and machine judgments/forecasts;

(2) new predictive models that incorporate both machine data and human judgments; and

(3) algorithmic forecasting agents that interact with human forecasters/forecasts inside crowdsourced forecasting platforms.

The geopolitical and geoeconomic events on which HFC methods will be developed will be discrete choice/probabilistic and continuous quantity forecasting problems.

The HFC Program is looking to draw academic and industrial expertise through collaborative teaming. IARPA officials anticipate that teams will be multidisciplinary and may include social and behavioral scientists, experts in operational forecasting disciplines (e.g. finance, macroeconomics, meteorology, geopolitics), computer scientists/software developers, and methodologists (statisticians/psychometricians/polimetricians/econometricians).

Attendees must register no later than COB on January 27, 2016 at Directions to the conference facility and other materials will be provided upon registration. No walk-in registrations will be allowed.

Due to space limitations, attendance will be limited to the first 250 registrants. If there are more registrants than available seats, the priority will be given to the first two registrants from each organization. All attendees must present government-issued photo identification to enter the event. Non-U.S. citizens will be required to present passports.

According to the IARPA release: "This Proposers’ Day is intended for participants who are eligible to compete on the anticipated BAA. Other Government Agencies, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs), or any other similar organizations that have a special relationship with the Government, that gives them access to privileged or proprietary information, or access to Government equipment or real property, will not be eligible to submit proposals to the anticipated BAA nor participate as team members under proposals submitted by eligible entities. While such entities are not prohibited from attending the Proposers’ Day, due to space limitations, preference will be given first to those organizations that are eligible to compete."

The afternoon session of the conference will have unclassified presentations and poster sessions to provide an opportunity for attendees to present their organizations’ capabilities and to look at teaming arrangements. Attendees who wish to present organization capabilities for teaming opportunities may submit a request through the registration website. Details on the presentation and poster formats, and the procedure for submitting a request to present, will be provided after approval to register for the conference has been granted, according to IARPA. Time available for presentations and space available for posters will be limited.

As such, presentations will be limited to the first 15 registered respondents who request an oral presentation, and posters will be limited to the first 15 registered respondents who request a poster presentation. These presentations are not intended to solicit feedback from the Government, and Government personnel will not be present during the presentations.

For information on the conference and registration email [email protected]. Questions about the program may be sent to [email protected].

The contracting office address is:

Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
Washington, DC 20511

Th primary point of contact is Seth Goldstein, Program Manager, [email protected].


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