Worldwide UAV market to triple over next decade, say analysts

News

August 20, 2015

FAIRFAX, Virginia. Global spending on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) programs is expected to triple over the next decade in military, commercial, and consumer markets, according to analysts at Teal Group in a new market analysis. They estimate that UAV production will rise from current worldwide UAV production of $4 billion annually to about $14 billion, totaling $93 billion over the next ten years. Military UAV research spending would add another $30 billion over the same decade.

"The market for UAVs looks very strong, increasingly driven by new technologies such as the next generation of unmanned combat systems, and the development of new markets such as civil and consumer drones," says Philip Finnegan, Teal Group's director of corporate analysis and co-author of the study, titled "World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems, Market Profile and Forecast 2015." "Consumer UAVs are showing that they can do many of the easier commercial missions such as simple real estate photography," he adds.

Civil UAV growth is also continuing to grow, say Teal analysts. "Our coverage of the civil UAV market continues to grow with each annual report, mirroring the increase in the civil market itself," said Finnegan. "Our 2015 UAV study calculates the UAV market at 72 percent military, 23 percent consumer, 5 percent civil cumulative for the decade." Of the three areas, civil UAVs grow most rapidly over the forecast period as airspace around the world is opened, but it grows from a very low base.

"The Teal Group study predicts that the U.S. will account for 64 percent of total military worldwide [Research, Development, Test, & Evaluation] RDT&E spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 38 percent of the military procurement," says Teal Group senior analyst Steve Zaloga, another co-author of the study. The larger, higher value systems procured by the U.S. help drive the relative strength of the U.S. market over the decade.

 

UAV payloads, such as electro-optic/infrared sensors (EO/IR), synthetic aperture radars (SARs), SIGINT and electronic warfare Systems, and C4I Systems, are forecast to double in value from $3.1 billion in Fiscal Year 2015 to $6.4 billion in Fiscal Year 2024, Teal analysts say. EO/IR remains the default sensor for the majority of UAVs, but in recent years have seen inconsistent funding and considerable uncertainty, as legacy endurance UAV production has ended, they add.

New sensor markets will see significant increases as radio frequency (RF) systems replace EO/IR capabilities, and next-generation UAVs at all scales require much more sophisticated - and expensive - sensors. "Rapidly increasing capabilities for RF sensors will be funded, as potential conflicts shift from clear-skies Central Asia to the more restrictive geographies of Eastern Europe and the Pacific," says Dr. David Rockwell, author of the electronics portion of the new study. "And out-years [Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) and nano-UAV procurements will see much more expensive and capable sensors.

"UAVs will continue to provide the world's fastest-growing aerospace payload market, but not through continued growth of 'the usual suspects' from the past decade. Instead, new sensor programs for current and future air vehicles will result in more unexpected growth spurts and losses," he continues. "We now forecast a number of speculative new programs in the out-years, including estimates of classified programs. Wise companies will plan today for growth tomorrow.

The Teal report also has a UAV Manufacturers Market Overview that reflects the worldwide UAV market "again continuing as one of the prime areas of growth for defense and aerospace companies," Finnegan says. "UAVs are no longer of interest only to aerospace companies, but increasingly technology companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon see a need to be in the market."